✓ How sure? The tags
Science isn't one pile of facts. Each claim here says how far it has got — and one paper can hold claims at several levels.
The tags
- Established
- Independent tests agree and the alternatives have failed. Still open to revision at its limits — Newton's gravity was established, and still is, inside the limits relativity found.
- Contested
- Serious evidence or argument exists, but experts disagree about it.
- Speculative
- A published proposal without supporting evidence yet. It may still make testable predictions — that's what to look for.
- Ruled out
- Made clear predictions that failed. Kept, because how ideas die is the best lesson in method.
- Analogy
- A picture or story to help thinking — not a claim about how nature works.
- Hypothesis
- This project's own ideas, or visitors' — not mainstream physics. Shown in Workbench mode, to be tested, not believed.
Tag claims, not papers
A single paper can hold claims at different levels. Two Films is a good example: that the two films are exact solutions of a two-time wave equation is Established mathematics; that this tells us anything about our universe is Speculative.
Tiers and modes
Tags group into tiers: Mainstream (Established, Contested, Ruled out), Frontier (Speculative), Exploratory (Hypothesis) and Lens (Analogy). Learn mode shows Mainstream, Frontier and Lens; Lab mode adds Exploratory.
How a claim moves
Idea → worked-out proposal → tested and disputed → confirmed, or ruled out. How sure are we? walks one claim — the expanding universe — up that ladder.
See it in the labs
Sources: Project method (CLAUDE.md, D-004, D-008, D-016, D-025).